U.S., Partners Explore Seizing Russian Assets to Back Loans to Ukraine
Some European officials are wary of plan discussed by U.S. and U.K.
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Stay informed with the latest news and updates from around the world.
Some European officials are wary of plan discussed by U.S. and U.K.
The president imposes the measure, which includes a curfew for two months, one day after the escape of José Adolfo Macías Villamar, alias 'Fito', the most dangerous criminal in the country
Israel says Philadelphi Corridor has been used by Hamas to smuggle weapons and people through underground tunnels
The number was more than expected, since analysts estimated, according to the Refinitiv consensus, that 170.000 jobs would be created; unemployment rate remained stable at 3.7%
The new record reached is US$98.05 billion
By David Lawder and Rami Ayyub January 8, 2024. 10:24 AM GMT-3
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Friday that a "soft landing" of the U.S. economy is underway and that a sustained period of low inflation and rising wages is needed to that Americans "feel good about their future prospects."
Yellen told CNN in an interview following strong job growth data in December that consumer spending patterns suggest confidence in the economy.
"I think we can describe what we're seeing now as a soft landing and my expectation is that that will continue," Yellen said.
By David Shepardson, Valerie Insinna and Tim Hepher January 6, 2024. 5:31 PM GMT-3
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The top U.S. aviation regulator ordered the temporary grounding of certain Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft for safety checks following a cabin panel blowout late Friday that forced a brand-new airplane operated by Alaska Airlines to make an emergency landing.
A piece of fuselage tore off the left side of the jet operated by Alaska Airlines (ALK.N) as it climbed following takeoff from Portland, Oregon, en route to Ontario, California, forcing pilots to turn back and land safely with all 171 passengers and six crew on board. The plane had been in service for just eight weeks.
The FAA's decision falls well short of a full indefinite safety ban comparable to the grounding of all MAX-family jets almost five years ago, but it deals a new blow to Boeing as it tries to recover from back-to-back crises over safety and the pandemic under massive debts.
"The FAA is requiring immediate inspections of certain Boeing 737 MAX 9 planes before they can return to flight," Federal Aviation Administration chief Mike Whitaker said on Saturday. "Safety will continue to drive our decision-making as we assist the NTSB’s investigation into Alaska Airlines Flight 1282," he added, referring to the National Transport Safety Board.
Boeing (BA.N) said it supports the decision requiring immediate inspections of 737-9 airplanes "with the same configuration as the affected airplane." The directive covers 171 planes.
Alaska Airlines (ALK.N) earlier Saturday voluntarily grounded its fleet of 65 Boeing MAX 9 (BA.N) jets for safety checks. As of Saturday morning, Alaska said more than a quarter of the inspections had been completed with no new issues, and those jets were resuming flights. It did not respond to a request for further comment.
United Airlines (UAL.O) said it had temporarily suspended service on about 45 Boeing 737 MAX 9 airplanes to conduct inspections. United has 79 of the aircraft, and it said 33 have already received required inspections. It expects about 60 United cancellations Saturday.
Alaska and United are the only U.S. airlines currently using the MAX 9, according to aviation data provider Cirium.
Boeing's best-selling model was grounded for almost two years following crashes in 2018 and 2019. The latest mishap also comes as Boeing and a major supplier are grappling with a succession of production or quality problems.
There were no immediate indications of the cause of the apparent structural failure, and no reports of any injuries.
Lawmakers said answers were needed in the wake of the incident. "I’m glad the FAA & NTSB are taking action and investigating this terrifying incident," said Senator Ed Markey.
According to tracking site FlightRadar24, Alaska Airlines had 108 cancellations on Saturday, or 14% of its scheduled flights.
The National Transportation Safety Board said a team of experts in structures, operations and systems would arrive on the scene later on Saturday to begin an investigation.
Boeing said it was working to gather more information and was in contact with the airline.
Flight 1282 had reached just over 16,000 feet when the blowout happened, according to FlightRadar24. "We'd like to get down," the pilot told air traffic control, according to a recording posted on liveatc.net.
"We are declaring an emergency. We do need to come down to 10,000," the pilot added, referring to the initial staging altitude for such emergencies, below which breathing is considered possible for healthy people without extra oxygen.
Social media posts showed oxygen masks deployed and a portion of the aircraft's side wall missing. Passenger photos appeared to show that a section of the fuselage sometimes used for an optional rear mid-cabin exit door had vanished, leaving a neat door-shaped gap.
Emma Vu, a passenger on the Alaska flight, told CNN she awoke to the plane “just falling, and I knew it was not just normal turbulence because the masks came down and that’s when the panic definitely started to set in.”
The extra door is typically installed by low-cost airlines using extra seats that require more paths for evacuation. However, those doors are permanently "plugged," or deactivated, on jets with fewer seats, including those of Alaska Airlines.
"I can't imagine what these passengers experienced," said Anthony Brickhouse, an air safety expert at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. "The wind would be rushing through that cabin. It was a probably pretty violent situation, and definitely a scary situation."
The 737 MAX was grounded for 20 months worldwide after two fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019 linked to poorly designed cockpit software killed 346 people in Ethiopia and Indonesia. Boeing is awaiting certification of its smaller MAX 7 and larger MAX 10.
Bloomberg News reported that China's aviation regulator was considering a response to the Alaska Air incident, including a possible new grounding of the Boeing MAX fleet in the country.
Last week, Boeing said it was urging airlines to inspect all 737 MAX airplanes for a possible loose bolt in the rudder control system.
The fuselage for Boeing 737 planes, its most popular model, is made by Kansas-based Spirit AeroSystems (SPR.N), which separated from Boeing in 2005.
It was not immediately clear whether the door "plug" used to replace the door when not selected by airlines is also made by Spirit, nor whether the Alaska incident was related to factory processes or design. Spirit referred questions on the Alaska incident to Boeing.
By Mecicla, 05/01/2024
In the fiscal year 2023, Brazil achieved a historic milestone in its trade balance, recording a notable trade surplus of $98.05 billion. This marked a substantial increase of 60.6% compared to the figures reported in 2022, as per data released by the Brazilian Ministry of Economy.
The surge in the trade surplus can be attributed to a noteworthy expansion in exports, which saw an uptick of 1.7%, reaching a total value of $339.7 billion, while the imports was down by 11.7%, totaling $240.8 billion.
Within the spectrum of exports, the agricultural sector emerged as the predominant contributor, constituting 24% of the total export volume. Noteworthy sectors facilitating the trade surplus also encompassed mining (18%), industrial products (16%), and services (16%). This robust performance across various sectors underscores Brazil's resilience and competitiveness in the global trade landscape.
The record trade surplus is expected to help Brazil's economy grow in 2023. The International Monetary Fund has forecast that Brazil's economy grow 3.1% in 2023. With that, Brazil should jump two positions and become the world’s ninth largest economy.
By Mecicla, 05/01/2024
The report released by the Labor Department on Friday revealed a more substantial increase in U.S. employment for the month of December than initially anticipated. According to the Labor Department, non-farm payroll employment experienced a notable surge, adding 216,000 jobs, surpassing economist predictions of around 170,000 job additions.
However, the report also disclosed significant downward adjustments to the rate of job growth reported for October and November. Employment gains for October and November were revised downward to 105,000 jobs and 173,000 jobs, respectively, resulting in an overall downward revision of 71,000 jobs.
Simultaneously, the report indicated that the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent in December, unchanged from November. This contradicted economist projections, which had anticipated a marginal uptick in the unemployment rate to 3.8 percent.
To the friends of Reddit and my Website,
To the Friends of Reddit and my Website,
INTRODUCTION
By the end of this year I thought of doing a project here. This platform is full of the "degenerates" of Wall Street Bets and it's sad to see so terrible events that occur with some of them. We are in the decade where the easier thing to do is buy a stock. The stock market accessibility provides a very dangerous world to some people that don't have any knowledge. Despite this, this fact was not such a bad thing, as it also opened the world of investments to very intelligent and capable people who would not have had the same opportunity a few years ago.
Arguably the best way to invest is through a passively managed portfolio, which is rebalanced over long periods and with regular contributions. Anyone who claims anything contrary to this is an idiot or pretending to be one. A study posted here by Celtiberian666 showed that 93.26% of monkeys (i.e. random choices) beat the Ibovespa [1], the brazilian index that I will talk later. In the american market, the numbers were even higher, 96.5%. You may ask why this happened. The answer was pretty simple, the random choices were made with 15 stocks that they didn't "touch" for 30 years straight! It only proves my point. Also, Buffett once said: "If I had never sold a stock, I would be much wealthier".
But why I'm doing it then if I know I will probably lose my money, as a study of a renowned university in Brazil afirmed that "97% of people who speculate on the stock market lose money and those who win earn less than R$300 (US$60.00) per day" and that "of everyone who tried something, 92.1% stopped in less than a year. Of those who followed – those who traded daily for at least 300 trading sessions – 97% lost money. In the 3% that came out in the black, 2.6% earned less than 300 reais per day (or up to 6,000 reais in a month with 20 working days)"?
FOR FUN!
HOW THE BRAZILIAN FUTURES MARKET WORK
I invest in the brazilian stock market since march of 2021. This year in particular I performed well but not as I liked. I never had a down year (not an incredible thing for 3 years), but I had a great return in 2021 with a very good alpha, since Ibovespa dropped -11%.
Just like in the US stock market, in Brazil we have the index futures. By the time I write this, Ibovespa is at an all time high of 134.185,23 points. The Ibovespa futures however of this month is at 135.890 points. This means that the market think that the index will go up until the end of this contract.
I "could" make the trades in the normal futures index, but the value is high since it's now at R$135,890.00 (≈ US$28,004.12). The margin required to it is a little high for the amount of the portfolio. As I didn't say earlier, let me disclose to you that I will put in this study R$1,000.00, or about 200 dollars. My goal for the end of the year is to be between the range of 1,750 - 2,000, since the futures have leverage.
Let me explain now the MINI CONTRACTS of the Ibovespa. A decade ago, the futures were operated only by hedge fund managers and people who were experts and had a decent amount of money. To open this contracts to more people, the brazilian NYSE called BM&FBOVESPA (it changed to B3) divided the full contract into 5 smaller ones. So if the futures are at 135.890 points, the contract cost 135.890/5 = 27178 reais, or 5600 dollars. The margin to operate it is 100 reais (20 dollars), so the max leverage of them are 271.18 to 1. Pretty much if you ask! This is one of the reasons so much people fail at this. But we are with 10 times this capital and will operate only 1 per trade, so our leverage is actually 27.118 to 1, that is still a lot and this makes me uncomfortable, but it's only a study.
ABOUT THE BRAZILIAN MARKET AND EXPECTATIONS TO 2024
I'm 99.9% certain that the US market is overvalued, and when I say it, I mean a lot. The Buffett indicator is heading back to levels seen in the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022, period that everyone knows because of the slow and steady -20% drop of the S&P .
On the other hand, the Brazilian market, in my view, is very undervalued. It actually was more, at the beginning of this year. However, the opportunities are still many. The P/E of it is only a little more than the dip of the 2008 crisis
I don't like to make any forecast. On those three years I learned that predicting the future is trying to see the needle in the hay blindfolded. For better understanding of this topic, read "The Zurich Axioms", I personally recommend. I will be direct and say that will be a difficult year. The US market moved up a lot and just only by the big-techs (see the equal S&P weight for confirmation). I'm not expecting a global crash, another pandemic or WW3, I'm just saying that if the market goes up, it will be a little. The risk of recession is still here. Cuts on the FED Rates are a historical trigger, but stocks and macroeconomic factors are starting to not follow those old patterns anymore. I personally think we are in a new era. We need another Ben Graham to make another good theory, since the Modern Theory Portfolio is equal to SHIT * SHIT = SHIT2.
ENDING
Well, I think I wrote everything that needed to be written.
Without further ado, thank you very much for your attention and I sincerely ask you to follow this project/study throughout the year.
Cordially,
Mecicla.
Special thank
I would like to thank Hermes Lux for the beautiful work he did this last year and which, if he continues, he will do in the coming year and also for the inspiration he gave to me.
29/12/2023
As we enter the first day of the new year, I extend my sincere wishes for a year filled with prosperity, joy, and shared accomplishments. Let’s see what this project will reveal.
UPDATETomorrow I will send the 1000 reais to my broker account.
01/01/2024
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| Symbol | Last | Change | % Change | High | Low | Volume | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 37,683.01 | +216.90 | 0.58 | 37,692.92 | 37,249.24 | n/a | 4:51 PM |
| SPX | 4,763.54 | +66.30 | 1.41 | 4,764.54 | 4,699.82 | n/a | 4:51 PM |
| COMP | 14,843.7683 | +319.6951 | 2.20 | 14,846.8967 | 14,560.1969 | 6,359,559,611 | 5:15 PM |
| BR:BVSP | 132,426.54 | +403.62 | 0.31 | 132,498.05 | 131,014.77 | n/a | 6:19 PM |
| JP:NIK | 33,377.42 | +89.13 | 0.27 | 33,568.04 | 33,257.43 | n/a | 3:15 PM |
| AR:SPMERVAL | 1,104,913.27 | +49,532.16 | 4.69 | 1,106,233.26 | 1,051,492.77 | n/a | 5:24 PM |
| FR:PX1 | 7,450.24 | +29.55 | 0.40 | 7,451.17 | 7,376.20 | 37,426 | 6:05 PM |
| DX:DAX | 16,716.47 | +122.26 | 0.74 | 16,716.47 | 16,517.49 | 55,073 | 6:30 PM |
| UK:UKX | 7,694.19 | +4.58 | 0.06 | 7,694.19 | 7,636.05 | 399,629 | 5:06 PM |
Explore the growth rates of Ibovespa from 1968 to 2023.
| Year | Growth Rate | Nominal Close Value | 1968 | 100.0% | 0.00000000020 | 1969 | 164.7% | 0.00000000055 | 1970 | 54.6% | 0.00000000085 | 1971 | 113.0% | 0.00000000181 | 1972 | -44.4% | 0.00000000101 | 1973 | 4.8% | 0.00000000105 | 1974 | 36.5% | 0.00000000144 | 1975 | 34.9% | 0.00000000194 | 1976 | 24.0% | 0.00000000241 | 1977 | 41.0% | 0.00000000340 | 1978 | 4.5% | 0.00000000355 | 1979 | 56.6% | 0.00000000556 | 1980 | 44.2% | 0.00000000801 | 1981 | 113.8% | 0.00000001714 | 1982 | 63.9% | 0.00000002808 | 1983 | 759.3% | 0.00000024130 | 1984 | 441.5% | 0.00000130684 | 1985 | 401.6% | 0.00000655489 | 1986 | 41.2% | 0.00000925819 | 1987 | 34.9% | 0.00001248622 | 1988 | 2549.5% | 0.00033082158 | 1989 | 1762.5% | 0.00616154226 | 1990 | 308.3% | 0.02515660818 | 1991 | 2315.9% | 0.60776859589 | 1992 | 1015.6% | 6.78 | 1993 | 5437.2% | 375.45 | 1994 | 1059.6% | 4,353.93 | 1995 | -1.3% | 4,299.00 | 1996 | 63.8% | 7,039.95 | 1997 | 44.8% | 10,196.56 | 1998 | -33.5% | 6,784.33 | 1999 | 151.9% | 17,091.60 | 2000 | -10.7% | 15,259.29 | 2001 | -11.0% | 13,577.57 | 2002 | -17.0% | 11,268.47 | 2003 | 97.3% | 22,236.39 | 2004 | 17.8% | 26,196.25 | 2005 | 27.7% | 33,455.94 | 2006 | 32.9% | 44,473.71 | 2007 | 43.6% | 63,886.10 | 2008 | -41.2% | 37,550.31 | 2009 | 82.7% | 68,588.41 | 2010 | 1.0% | 69,304.81 | 2011 | -18.1% | 56,754.08 | 2012 | 13.7% | 60,952.08 | 2013 | -15.5% | 51,507.16 | 2014 | -2.9% | 50,007.41 | 2015 | -13.3% | 43,349.96 | 2016 | 38.9% | 60,227.28 | 2017 | 26.8% | 76,402.08 | 2018 | 15.0% | 87,887.27 | 2019 | 31.6% | 115,645.34 | 2020 | 2.9% | 119,017.24 | 2021 | -11.9% | 104,822.44 | 2022 | 4.7% | 109,734.60 | 2023 | 22.3% | 134,185.24 |
I would like to express my gratitude to item8 for compiling and sharing all these valuable resources! Check his site later for even more information.